A Yemeni expert, referring to the development of Ansarullah’s military capabilities after a decade of war, said that Yemen is ready for a political solution, provided that the occupation comes to an end.
By Azar Mahdavan — Regional Affairs Analyst
Recent developments on the Yemeni front and the victories achieved by the country’s armed forces against Saudi Arabia have effectively brought Riyadh to a state of desperation. At times, it has turned to members of the Makkah coalition to compensate for its failures, while at other times it has appealed to the United States for support. The question, however, is how Yemen has managed to reach such a position in military and tactical terms. How have Ansarullah’s military capabilities taken shape over more than a decade of war? And what impact does the Bab al-Mandab Strait, alongside the Strait of Hormuz, have on regional equations and the calculations of Saudi Arabia and its supporters?
In this context, an Iran View 24 correspondent interviewed Ahmed Abdulwahab al-Shami, a Yemeni analyst. The interview follows.
Question: Following the advance of the Ansarullah movement along Yemen’s western coast and in areas surrounding the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Saudi-backed forces launched a counteroffensive at the beginning of October and announced that they had retaken positions around the strait and the city of Mokha. However, given the lack of independent and precise confirmation regarding the extent of either side’s advances, how would you assess the actual situation on the ground in Yemen?
Ahmed Abdulwahab al-Shami: The actual situation on the ground in Yemen is promising, and significant victories have been achieved. The Yemeni armed forces have advanced against concentrations of Saudi enemy forces across an area of 5,400 square kilometers along the western coast, stretching from Taiz Governorate to Al Hudaydah Governorate. They have also taken control of the adjacent mountain ranges overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait in order to secure these areas.
So far, the Yemeni armed forces have managed to establish control over 95 percent of Taiz Governorate, which had been under the domination and oppression of the Saudi occupiers. This reality demonstrates that the Yemeni armed forces have managed to clear these areas through a carefully considered and calculated strategy—one that has proved effective, both militarily and in other respects, in countering the efforts of the Saudi enemy and its affiliated forces.
Saudi-affiliated forces are attempting to advance toward Bab al-Mandab from Lahij Governorate and retake the liberated areas, but, by God’s grace, they have so far failed to do so. The Yemeni armed forces have adopted a strategy under which they do not remain in open, uncovered areas where the enemy could strike them through air attacks. Instead, they target any forces attempting to advance with ballistic missiles and drones.
The Saudi enemy and its affiliated forces have made several attempts to infiltrate toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait from the occupied governorate of Lahij. In some locations, they have managed to advance several kilometers. However, the Yemeni armed forces maintain fire control over these areas and target concentrations of enemy forces. They have also succeeded in retaking some areas and mountain ranges in Lahij Governorate from which the Saudi enemy had been advancing.
Of course, some areas remain exposed and within the enemy’s reach, and Saudi forces are using these routes in their attempts to advance. However, the strategy of the Yemeni armed forces is to inflict heavy blows on the enemy using drones and ballistic missiles. They are currently also deploying the Shawad drone, a suicide drone that targets vehicles and forces attempting to advance toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The Yemeni armed forces have managed to take control of the mountain ranges adjacent to and parallel with the coastal areas overlooking Bab al-Mandab. In this way, they are also securing the rear of the areas whose security has been established and clearing these areas of concentrations of Saudi enemy forces.
Question: The escalating clashes along Yemen’s western coast have once again brought the Bab al-Mandab Strait to the center of regional conflict. The strait is no longer merely a strategic passage for global trade; it has become one of the principal arenas of confrontation. By imposing maritime restrictions on ships linked to Saudi Arabia and targeting commercial vessels, Ansarullah has demonstrated that it can use Yemen’s geographical position to exert pressure on its adversaries. To what extent could this strategy increase the economic and security costs for Saudi Arabia and its foreign allies? Given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea for energy transportation, could the linkage between these two fronts alter regional maritime security arrangements and the balance of pressure?
Ahmed Abdulwahab al-Shami: Both the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Strait of Hormuz are of tremendous strategic importance, and the equations governing maritime security and the balance of pressure in the region will undoubtedly change. We are witnessing a profound strategic transformation—a transformation that will bring an end to American dominance over the seas and straits.
Previously, the US Navy exercised control over straits and maritime passages. Now, however, it is losing the Strait of Hormuz and will subsequently lose the Bab al-Mandab Strait as well. Together, these two straits account for more than 50 percent, or nearly half, of global trade. This means that the era of American unipolarity in the world has come to an end, and we have entered a multipolar era in which jihad and resistance occupy a leading position.
This transformation is being realized through the Islamic Republic of Iran and its control over the Strait of Hormuz, as well as through Yemen and its control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait. By reclaiming these two straits, the Arab and Islamic region will regain its position and return to independence.
This development will also change the course of political policies and military calculations, particularly in confronting the interventions of the United States and the Israeli regime, which seek to dominate the region’s waters and maritime passages. It is no secret that the Israeli presence in Somalia and the American presence in Djibouti and other parts of the Horn of Africa have been part of a plan to gain control over Bab al-Mandab. However, by God’s grace, this plan has failed because of the Yemeni armed forces’ control over the strait.
Under these circumstances, the economic and security costs for Saudi Arabia have become extremely heavy. The naval blockade imposed by the Yemeni armed forces on Saudi shipping has proved effective and has brought the country’s maritime traffic to almost zero. Yemeni forces do not allow any Saudi vessel to pass through Bab al-Mandab.
Saudi Arabia had hoped that, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Republic of Iran, it could continue exporting its oil through Yanbu Port and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. However, it now finds itself in an even more difficult predicament, and the country’s oil exports have come to a halt.
Saudi Arabia is also suffering economic and investment-related damage on several fronts, particularly following attacks by the Yemeni armed forces on Riyadh’s airports and other facilities in the country. Aramco facilities have also repeatedly been targeted by the Yemeni armed forces. All these developments entail enormous economic losses and will also constrain Saudi Arabia’s future investment and trade prospects.
Question: To what extent are the military capabilities Ansarullah has developed over a decade of war the result of Iranian support, and to what extent do they stem from battlefield experience and the movement’s development of indigenous capabilities? Can Ansarullah be considered a military force that has developed an independent combat doctrine?
Ahmed Abdulwahab al-Shami: Ansarullah and the Yemeni armed forces have developed their capabilities not merely over the past decade, but since the establishment of the Ansarullah movement in 2002. From that time onward, signs of the movement’s progress in weaponry and military capabilities were evident, and it relied to a considerable extent on its own domestic capabilities.
After several decades, the Yemeni armed forces have managed to develop their military capabilities to the point of producing ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles—missiles that have reached the occupied territories and targeted the Israeli regime. They have also developed their drones and acquired new technologies and unconventional methods, some of which have no historical precedent or have been employed on an unprecedented scale. One example is the use of these technologies to target US warships and aircraft carriers during Yemen’s confrontation with the United States.
All these achievements, after the grace of God, are the result of the Yemeni armed forces’ independent decision-making. These forces draw on the experience of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and there is nothing wrong with that. They also learn from the experiences of others. Wherever information or technology is available that they can use to counter the Zionist project, they seek it out and make use of its benefits.
The problem is not learning from the experience and technology of others. The problem is relying on the United States for one’s armaments while also receiving support from the Israeli regime through weapons and air-defense systems. This is precisely what has happened to Saudi Arabia and, unfortunately, to some Arab countries aligned with it.
Together with the Islamic Republic of Iran, we form the Axis of Jihad and Resistance, which also includes the Palestinian resistance, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The capabilities of this axis are continuously expanding. These capabilities complement one another and serve the Palestinian cause.
Of course, this does not mean that Iran holds the reins of power in Yemen or that Yemen’s decisions are made by Iran. On the contrary, the Republic of Yemen and its armed forces enjoy complete independence. What unites us is the Palestinian cause and our confrontation with the American and Zionist enemy.
Question: What factors prompted Saudi Arabia to resume its attacks on Yemen? What roles do the United States and Israel play in escalating the conflict, and what strategic objectives are they pursuing through this war?
Ahmed Abdulwahab al-Shami: Several factors led Saudi Arabia to resume its attacks on Yemen. As Saudi Arabia was moving toward an agreement with Yemen, it chose to escalate tensions rather than pursue an agreement. The reason for this move was the attack on Sana’a Airport, as Yemen and Sana’a were moving toward freeing themselves from Saudi Arabia’s dominance over Yemen’s decision-making and sovereignty.
An Iranian aircraft had also arrived to travel to Iran and participate in a ceremony to pay tribute and offer condolences following the martyrdom of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei. However, through bullying and arrogance, Saudi Arabia resumed its aggression against Yemen by attacking Sana’a Airport.
The role of the United States and the Israeli regime is also an open secret. More than 200 American experts are supporting Saudi Arabia, and the United States is also providing the country with intelligence on targets. In addition, the United States and the Israeli regime provide Saudi Arabia with logistical, weapons-related, and intelligence support—a matter that is no longer hidden from anyone.
Saudi Arabia’s strategic objective in this war is to bring Yemen into submission to Riyadh’s decisions. If that happens, Yemen would naturally become subordinate to the United States and Israel as well. But this will never happen, and such an outcome is not possible in Yemen.
Question: Will the escalation of the conflict in Yemen lead to a shift in the balance of power, or could it open the way for a political agreement? What are the most likely scenarios for Yemen’s future in the coming phase?
Ahmed Abdulwahab al-Shami: The escalation of the conflict in Yemen will undoubtedly change the balance of power, and this is already happening. Who could have imagined that Saudi Arabia’s airports and Aramco facilities would one day be targeted? The petrodollar and the military system that once ruled the world are now being targeted by the Yemeni armed forces. This, in itself, constitutes a strategic shift.
Yemen is not opposed to any political solution, provided that it is based on the restoration of Yemen’s rights, an end to Saudi aggression, the lifting of the blockade, the resumption of salary payments, the recovery of Yemen’s looted wealth from the Saudi enemy, the reconstruction of the country, the withdrawal of Saudi military forces and other foreign forces from Yemen, and non-interference in Yemen’s internal affairs. If any political agreement is based on these principles, Yemen will welcome it.
However, if Saudi aggression and its crimes in Yemen continue, and the country persists in committing killings and other crimes, we will face broader confrontations and further escalation. The equation of “escalation in response to escalation” remains in effect.
The Yemeni armed forces have many targets at their disposal and multiple cards to play. They can change the existing equation and thwart Saudi Arabia’s objectives of dominating Yemen.
The future scenario depends on whether the course of events moves toward peace, whether Saudi Arabia pursues a political agreement, and whether it accepts Yemen’s demands, as outlined above.
Yemen’s objective is clear: to end Saudi aggression and its crimes—aggression that has continued for the past 12 years and is still ongoing.
