Ansarullah’s rapid advance along Yemen’s western coast and its approach toward the Bab al-Mandab, alongside the expansion of the movement’s missile and drone attacks deep into Saudi Arabia and the targeting of Aramco facilities and military positions, including King Khalid Air Base, has brought the war equation into a new phase. Ansarullah is now not only consolidating its position along the Red Sea coast and approaching control over one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, but also, by shifting pressure onto Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and strategic centers, expanding the geographical scope of the confrontation from the battlefields of Yemen deep into Saudi territory; a development that increases the strategic costs of continuing the military option for Riyadh.
Iran View 24 – World
Ansarullah’s recent advance in western Yemen and the capture of areas such as Mokha, Dhubab, and Mayyun/Perim Island, together with the movement’s expanding control over a major portion of the Red Sea coast, have created a significant development in Yemen’s geopolitical configuration and the security dynamics of the Bab al-Mandab. Many observers regard this development as an important turning point in the course of the conflict and emphasize that Ansarullah now has access to a very extensive portion of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline.
The significance of this advance is not limited merely to the territorial extent of the areas captured; rather, the central issue is the formation of a continuous geographic and operational corridor from the northern areas under Ansarullah’s control to the southern Red Sea coast and ultimately to the Bab al-Mandab. In this context, the capture of Mayyun/Perim Island is of particular importance, because the island is located within the Bab al-Mandab Strait and its position is such that it divides the strait into two maritime routes.
The Real Nature of the Recent Advance
Saudi attacks and those of its affiliated forces against Yemen and Ansarullah positions began when tensions once again escalated in the Strait of Hormuz. American-Israeli sources at the time explicitly emphasized the need to strike the Yemeni resistance, a mission that was openly assigned to Riyadh. However, Ansarullah’s operations against Saudi Arabia intensified in early September, and the lines of Saudi-affiliated opposition forces in western Yemen rapidly collapsed. Ansarullah captured Mokha on September 10 and subsequently advanced toward Dhubab and the Bab al-Mandab. Following the withdrawal of the forces affiliated with Riyadh, Ansarullah forces reached Mayyun/Perim Island, while reports were simultaneously published regarding the capture of the Hanish Islands and other areas in the southern section of the Red Sea coast.
From an operational perspective, this development has at least three major consequences:
- Establishing a geographic connection between the areas under Ansarullah’s control and the Bab al-Mandab: This connection provides Ansarullah with new operational and geographic depth.
- Reducing the strategic depth of Saudi-affiliated opposition forces and other actors opposed to Ansarullah along the western coast: With the loss of coastal positions, the maneuvering space and the ability of Saudi proxies to establish sustainable defensive lines become more limited.
- Creating a new capacity to exert pressure on maritime routes: Broader access to the Red Sea coast and the Bab al-Mandab can increase Ansarullah’s capacity to influence and exert pressure on maritime routes between the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Suez Canal.
Nevertheless, the key point in the recent development is not merely the capture of Mokha; rather, it is the islands and their position within the geographic architecture of the Bab al-Mandab that are of decisive importance.
Mayyun/Perim Island is situated at a point where the Bab al-Mandab is divided into two channels. Therefore, effective control or military presence in this area can create capacities including:
- Monitoring and tracking vessel movements;
- Establishing surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities;
- Enhancing the ability to control passing vessels;
- Exercising tactical control over adjacent maritime routes;
- And creating operational depth for the deployment of missile and drone systems.
From this perspective, the capture of Mokha and the advance toward the Bab al-Mandab are not merely territorial gains; rather, they can significantly alter Ansarullah’s position in the region’s security and maritime equations. Western analytical sources have also assessed the capture of Mokha as an important point in changing Ansarullah’s position in the Bab al-Mandab equation.
The Formation of Simultaneous Land and Maritime Pressure on Saudi Arabia
If this situation is consolidated, Ansarullah will be capable of exerting pressure on Saudi Arabia in two distinct and complementary operational environments:
In the land environment: through the axes of Saada, Hajjah, Amran, Sana’a, Al-Jawf, and Marib, as well as the southern fronts.
In the maritime environment: through the axes of Hodeidah, Mokha, Dhubab, Mayyun/Perim, and the Bab al-Mandab.
From a strategic perspective, this situation expands the geographical scope of pressure on Saudi Arabia and transforms the Yemen issue from a predominantly land-based conflict into a multi-domain equation in which land, maritime, missile, and drone components reinforce one another.
At the same time, recent reports have pointed to an intensification of Ansarullah’s missile attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure, as well as the issuance of air-raid warnings in Riyadh. Under such circumstances, the significance of developments along the western coast lies not merely in territorial control, but in the combination of territorial, maritime, missile, and drone capabilities to increase the security and economic costs for the opposing side.
An Issue Beyond the Expansion of Ansarullah’s Military Power
One of the most important points in analyzing recent developments is that Ansarullah’s advance cannot be explained solely by an increase in the movement’s military power. Recent reports have pointed to the rapid collapse of anti-Ansarullah forces’ lines, internal disputes, weak coordination among forces, and command problems.
Therefore, part of the recent development has resulted from a shift in the internal balance of power in favor of Ansarullah and the structural weakness and low cohesion of Saudi-affiliated opposition forces.
Over the past years, Riyadh has sought to establish a coherent military-political structure to confront Ansarullah and, through its support for various Yemeni forces, create a balance against the movement. With the weakening or collapse of this structure, the nature of the issue also changes for Saudi Arabia: the question is no longer merely, “How can Ansarullah be defeated?” but is gradually becoming the question of how to confront and manage an enduring power reality in Sana’a and along Yemen’s western coast.
Conditions for Consolidating Ansarullah’s New Position
Of course, transforming this battlefield advance into a sustainable strategic achievement depends on multiple factors. If Ansarullah can:
- consolidate the western coast;
- maintain the Bab al-Mandab as a lever of pressure;
- maintain cohesion on its domestic front;
- make its missile and drone attacks more costly for Saudi Arabia;
- and, at the same time, control the human and economic costs of the war for its own forces,
then Riyadh’s position toward negotiations with Ansarullah will change, and efforts by Saudi Arabia to negotiate will increase—although no clear prospect can be identified for this. This is because a major obstacle exists along this path: as mentioned, the war against Ansarullah is considered part of the mission assigned to Saudi Arabia by the United States and Israel within the broader confrontation with the Axis of Resistance. From this perspective, Riyadh’s decision-making is not determined solely by bilateral Saudi-Yemeni considerations and is also influenced by broader regional calculations and alliances.
Recent developments in Yemen cannot be analyzed solely within the framework of a temporary resurgence of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Ansarullah. The primary significance of these developments lies in the changing nature of the balance of power: Saudi Arabia is no longer able to manage the Yemen issue merely as a security matter in its own backyard; therefore, it seeks, within the framework of the regional war with Iran and the Axis of Resistance, to achieve its historical objectives in Sana’a—a matter that is also part of the U.S. distributed warfare strategy in the region.
The Changing Nature of the Saudi Arabia–Yemen Equation
Despite these limitations, the existing evidence indicates, above all, a significant increase in Ansarullah’s power and an increase in the strategic cost of continuing the military option for Riyadh.
Ansarullah is moving beyond a position in which it was primarily defined as a land-based power based in northern and northwestern Yemen. If its recent gains are consolidated, the movement will become an actor that, in addition to possessing territorial depth in northern Yemen, has access to the Red Sea coast, the Bab al-Mandab area, and the region’s sensitive maritime routes, while simultaneously possessing missile and drone capabilities for striking regional infrastructure.
From this perspective, the recent development should be analyzed not merely as the capture of several cities and areas, but as a change in the balance of power in Yemen and a shift in part of the security equation of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab; a change that could move the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Ansarullah from a conflict based on efforts to alter the battlefield balance toward the management of a new and consolidated power reality.
