Forty days into the joint US-Israeli aggression against Iran, the war has not proceeded according to the invaders’ initial plans. The failure to achieve their primary objectives has reportedly caused confusion and disarray within the enemy camp and among its decision-makers.
Tehran – IranView24
The situation that the aggressors, led by the United States, is facing today is the result of their miscalculation regarding Iran’s political and social structure, and ultimately the combat capability of its armed forces.
The enemy’s assessment and the image that the Zionist regime had shaped for the Americans before the start of the war was that through joint military aggression and rapid operations against Iran, targeting the command circle — namely the meeting of the Supreme National Defense Council and the commander-in-chief, the Leader — the establishment would be shocked and would be paralyzed within 72 hours. Subsequently, with the initial blows they would inflict on Iran during the war, they would place the establishment in a state of severe weakness and collapse, paving the way for Iran’s surrender. Contrary to these expectations, Iran has maintained a cohesive defensive front. While the US-Israeli alliance has achieved some tactical successes by hitting predetermined targets in its “target bank,” inflicting human and material losses — to which Iran has responded in kind. But at the strategic level, the situation is different, and it appears that Iran is one step ahead of its enemies.
Previously, the core disputes centered on nuclear, missile, and regional issues, leadership succession and Iran’s future relations with China. Iran has now revealed a new card: the Strait of Hormuz and global energy security.
In response to the aggression and the support provided by some Persian Gulf states to the enemy, including hosting US bases and personnel, Iran moved to block the Strait of Hormuz. This action is seen as a major strategic victory. Its significance lies in its potential to impact the entire world, influencing global fuel and energy prices, food security, and economic stability from West Africa to North America, Australia, Japan, and China. The effects of this move are already being felt worldwide.
In such circumstances, we can say that although we have suffered serious blows on the battlefield —whether in offensive and defensive operations, infrastructure and facilities — but in the strategic field, which ultimately determines the result of the war, Iran holds the upper hand. The achievement of the current conflict, whose full effects may unfold in the coming years, is Iran’s dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. This control grants Iran a power tool comparable to the Suez Canal for Egypt or the Strait of Malacca for the United States. It also creates a dynamic of military and competitive influence similar to what Russia and Turkey wield over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.
Consequently, Iran has transformed itself into an unchallenged power in global energy security. Countries worldwide must now coordinate with Tehran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz — a great strategic victory.
In light of this development, the US President Donald Trump, to avoid further losses and prevent the conflict from escalating to other critical waterways like the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, should swiftly seek a face-saving exit from the war. Otherwise, if the situation escalates to controlling the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, then Iran can assert itself as a global power.
Therefore, the reasonable course of action for Donald Trump is to moderate his conditions and accept Iran’s terms and declare the end of the war sooner. Otherwise, while continuing this path may indeed inflict significant infrastructural damage on Iran, in the future, the consequences of prolonging the war could strike blows to American hegemony — costs that would be far greater for the US than any other war expenses.
Source: Iran Daily
