As political divisions deepen in Washington following the Democrats’ victory in Congress, questions are mounting over whether the new balance of power could open a window for diplomacy with Tehran or push Donald Trump towards renewed military escalation. In an interview with ADNKRONOS, Iranian analyst Afifeh Abedi argues that Tehran sees little difference between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to US policy towards Iran, while stressing that deep mistrust, Trump’s political ambitions and Israel’s opposition remain major obstacles to any potential agreement.
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Question: With the Democrats now in control of both chambers of Congress following the Republicans’ defeat in the midterm elections, what concrete means will Congress have to influence President Trump’s strategy towards Iran? Above all, is Tehran seeking to exploit the new political balance in Washington to secure concessions, or does it fear that a president who feels politically cornered might resort to military action?
Following the Republicans’ defeat in the midterm elections and Trump’s loss of control of Congress, does Tehran believe that a window of opportunity for reaching a deal has opened? Or does it think that a president weakened on the domestic front might be more inclined towards a new military escalation to reassert his leadership?
Afifeh Abedi: In Iran’s view, the Democrats’ victory and their gaining control of both chambers of the US Congress will not bring about any change in Washington’s strategic calculations or behaviour towards Tehran. Iran’s Supreme Leader made this clear in his message marking the anniversary of the seizure of the US Embassy on November 4.
There is no fundamental difference between Democrats and Republicans in their pursuit of regime change in Iran or in their efforts to put pressure on the Iranian people to rise up against the government. The difference lies in their tactics. The Democrats’ pressure on Republicans to end the war is part of their domestic political competition, as they are also accountable to the voters who elected them on the promise of bringing the war to an end. Nevertheless, I do not believe Iran is placing any serious strategic bets on divisions within the United States.
In my view, Trump has personalised the issue of war with Iran and regards backing down as a major defeat. At the same time, it is clear that resuming the war would turn into a quagmire from which extricating the United States would be no easier than before. The Trump administration has probably come to understand this as well, which may explain its considerable hesitation about restarting the war.
This may also be one of the reasons behind Washington’s increased efforts to negotiate with Iran. However, Trump’s actions and statements over the past few months have also created obstacles that make reaching an agreement increasingly difficult.
In my view, Iran has consistently maintained that, ultimately, the right solution to the dispute created by the United States lies in diplomacy, negotiations and an agreement. Iran previously demonstrated its commitment to this approach by reaching the JCPOA (the 2015 nuclear deal).
However, Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement, the assassination of Iranian officials, the Biden administration’s failure to restore the United States’ participation in the deal, and the recent wars have left Iran deeply distrustful of and disillusioned with any prospect of an agreement with Washington.
Nevertheless, negotiations and an eventual agreement remain an unavoidable path forward. Despite all its reservations and pessimism, Iran continues to engage in negotiations while setting out specific conditions to prevent the United States from deceiving it or reneging on its commitments once again.
However, I believe that, alongside Trump’s domineering personality and hegemonic ambitions, Israel remains a major obstacle to reaching an agreement and will once again seek to derail any potential deal.
