The war against Iran is not being decided solely on the battlefield or within the geography of West Asia. From the perspective of a Russian analyst, this confrontation could be part of a broader competition over the future shape of the global order. Leonid Savin, Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies at the Tsargrad Institute in Russia, speaks to us about an equation in which Iran, Russia, and China, each driven by different calculations and interests, are facing pressure from Washington. In his view, this equation could have an impact on the future of regional security, the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing transition toward a multipolar world order.<\/p>\n
Azar Mahdavan \u2014 International Affairs Analyst<\/strong><\/p>\n The war against Iran has not only altered regional calculations but has also intensified the debate over the future of the global order and the confrontation between a Western-centered order and a multipolar world. In this context, the positions of Russia and China, as two major actors in the formation of a multipolar order, have assumed greater significance with regard to Iran and developments in the region. This is particularly important as the continuation of U.S. and allied pressure on Tehran, both militarily and economically, has once again raised questions about Washington\u2019s unilateralism and the efforts of other powers to shape a new global order. Undoubtedly, any major development in Iran could also affect the interests and calculations of Russia and China.<\/p>\n The war has also raised important questions about the role of Russia and China in the security dynamics of West Asia, the future of their relations with Iran, and the extent to which these two powers are prepared to confront pressure from the United States. At the same time, recent developments have once again revived the debate over whether the Western liberal order still possesses the capacity to maintain its position, or whether the world is moving increasingly toward the emergence of a multipolar order.<\/p>\n Against this backdrop, Iran View 24<\/strong> conducted an interview with Leonid Savin<\/strong>, Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies at the Tsargrad Institute in Russia, on the global dimensions of the war against Iran, Russia\u2019s perspective on developments in the region, China\u2019s role, and the future of the international order. The interview follows:<\/p>\n For sure this conflict has a global scale, cause the blockade of Hormuz strait already influenced on oil\/stock markets worldwide. Even without strikes and counter strikes, everyone sees impact on international economy. If new hot phase will happens (just to reflect words of Donald Trump like real threat to Iran) there will be more serious consequences. Regional allies of Iran will be more active that means possible blockade of Red Sea by houthis from Yemen, revenge by paramilitary groups in Iraq and new involvement of the forces of Resistance in Lebanon and Palestine. Still there are major diplomatic allies of Iran such Russia and China and rise of anti-Israeli stances in the western countries.<\/p>\n Nuclear program of Iran also has symbolical meanings \u2013 if Washington rejects right of sovereign development to anyone it means that precedent will be used in future for anyone else. It is producing global mistrust to the US. From other point of view example of DPRK shows that nuclear weapon is good enough to stop provocations \u2013 Trump recently told that better to be in good relations with Pyongyang cause there are about 120 nukes. So, dilemma of non-proliferation is weak argument in the frame of political realism. And political realism is now in favor of international relations. Liberal agenda does not work anymore.<\/p>\n Besides recent changes started after Special military operation launched by Russia \u00a0in February 2022 because the West not respected Russian interests and continued to undermine European stability, we need back to retrospective outlook. Real impulse for multipolarity was in 2003 after criminal invasion of the US into Iraq, when European allies of the Washington refused to take participation in this adventure.<\/p>\n Step by step there were more multipolar initiatives \u2013 summits by SCO and BRICS, involving new members into these structures. And after double standards of the Western powers on Israeli operation in Palestine as well as in Lebanon the general perception is very clear and strong \u2013 Western elites united for global dominance, not human rights, not freedom of trade and speech, not equality. They are would like to do turn back for unipolarity, to get more profit from wars and exploitation, and don\u2019t care about justice and law. It is the reason why Russia support deep reform of the UN that was tool of western (mostly the US) influence for decades (through IMF and World Bank but also by other means). It is the reason why Russia more cooperative with Global South now and promotes different alternatives to the West-centric world order.<\/p>\n For my opinion Moscow understand necessity of cooperation for stability in West Asia very well, but has certain limits just now because involved into conflict in Ukraine that is proxy war against collective West. For Russia Iran is kind of geopolitical buffer and underbelly of Eurasian Heartland. So there need kind of guarantee that Iran will be friendly actor in the future. China is more pragmatic and looking to get reliable access to Iranian oil. China acts more slowly to counter act destructive Western attempts to isolate Iram and mostly in diplomatic way. Anyway both countries are members of UN Security council with vet right, so Russia and China are main legal defenders of Iran on international scale.<\/p>\n Finally from within the SCO China and Russia together with Iran can to develop new approach, but inside organization exists some contradictions (for example between such members like India and Pakistan). And SCO is flexible enough for collective response to the West. Ideally, it should be new format of agreement focused on regional security with hard military component. May be it is time to think about it.<\/p>\n Main of the NATO privilege is article 5 of Statute about collective defense if one of the members will be attacked. But Im not sure that it is workable frame in practice. Always possible to find argument and to avoid follow this \u201ccollective\u201d duty. Lets remember how Portuguese enclaves in India were captured by Indian forces. Portugal asked for assistance, but the US told that this region is not area of NATO\u2019s responsibility. So till now it is rather myth than military political system (anyway Russia is deeply concerning about military preparations of NATO in the Eastern Europe). And Iran also is out of Atlantic zone. Turkey who is the most powerful military member of NATO has tensions with Israel and will oppose any escalation in the region. Besides political commitment that may be evaporate quickly after real military clash it is necessary to evaluate real ties of enemies of Iran with neighbors. UAE and Azerbaijan are connected with Zionist entity and in time X may play role of the providers of intelligence data or stable base for attacks on Iran.<\/p>\n Both Russia and Iran have common interests and own interests too. Sanctions imposed against both, but most of them are different although they are similar. I think that joint mechanism against Western pressure need to be adopted and coordination should be rapid and operational with immediate responses to the hostile actors. Other layer is cooperation between our media, think tanks, academics and public persons \u2013 it will be helpful to combat fake news and create friendly Russian-Iranian initiatives for different sectors. We have good background for such action based in our strategic cultures with self-sacrifice and the search for truth. For the Western part of world it may seems like obsoleted sentiments and strange remnants. But for us it is source for everyday practice including defense of our Motherlands and part of our traditions. In other hand the contemporary West together with NATO is relic and for majority of peoples of this region will be better if this failed civilisation will be transformed into something else.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The war against Iran is not being decided solely on the battlefield or within the geography of West Asia. From the perspective of a Russian analyst, this confrontation could be part of a broader competition over the future shape of the global order. Leonid Savin, Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies at the Tsargrad […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7362,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[67,70,72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis-and-notes","category-conversation","category-the-most-important-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7361"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7361\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7363,"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7361\/revisions\/7363"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7362"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranview24.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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