The collapse of Iran would be dangerous for Saudi Arabia. Yet Riyadh has concluded that a limited war between the United States and Iran would neither lead to Iran’s collapse nor serve the interests of either side, and would merely drive up costs. This kind of analysis has highlighted Saudi Arabia’s dual positions toward escalating tensions.
Tehran – IranView24
Setting aside additional considerations, two key points stand out:
- Regional balance of power: The halt of the U.S. war against Iran would enhance Iran’s deterrence. As Iran strengthens its deterrent capabilities, Saudi Arabia’s role in shaping regional security diminishes, increasing its reliance on the United States.
- Political competition and domestic legitimacy: The increase of Iranian deterrence vis-à-vis Israel and the United States would expand Iran’s regional influence, constraining Riyadh’s influence, and intensifying domestic and regional public pressure on Saudi Arabia.
Given these constraints and consequences, it is in Saudi Arabia’s interest to both maintain close ties with the U.S., and avoide escalating tensions with Iran, and to underscore its role in preventing war so that it avert heavier costs for itself in the future.
