On the verge of the collapse of a decades-long narrative, the world is witnessing a reversal of an equation it had lived with for years, a moment in which it is no longer Iran’s nuclear program but Israel’s reckless and increasingly dangerous behavior that is seen as the main threat to regional stability and global peace.
Tehran – IranViw24
For the past two decades, the dominant narrative in a large part of international politics and Western media was that Iran was the most important security threat in the Middle East. And from Iran’s nuclear program to the Axis of Resistance were portrayed as an epicenter of instability. But field data, the judgments of international institutions, and polls—especially after the Gaza war—have shown that this framing was not based on reality. Today, more than ever, Israel is seen as the unpredictable actor and the primary threat in the region—not Iran.
As the Oxford Union recently confirmed in a decisive vote, Israel poses a greater threat to regional stability than Iran.
The Collapse of the “Iran Threat” Myth: The Reversal of an Old Narrative
For decades, Israeli leaders and some Western elites persistently labeled Iran as the greatest regional, and even global threat. In his famous 2012 UN General Assembly speech, Benjamin Netanyahu described Iran’s nuclear program as the world’s gravest threat and demanded a red line. Later, at the Munich Security Conference, he again called Iran the greatest threat to the world and compared it to Nazi Germany. Official U.S. documents also have repeatedly labeled Iran as the main threat to regional stability; for example, in the Inspector General’s report on Operation Inherent Resolve, U.S. Central Command describes Iran explicitly as the greatest threat to regional stability.
This rhetoric, beside parts of mainstream media, created an environment in which every regional crisis—from Yemen to Lebanon—was automatically attributed to Tehran, while Israel, as a Western ally, was portrayed not as the source of a threat, but as a security partner. By contrast, the reality on the ground after the Gaza war, the spread of the conflict into Lebanon and Syria, and even the direct Israeli strike on Iran’s diplomatic facilities in Damascus paints a completely different picture.
Barefaced Genocide: When Tel Aviv Crossed Every Red Line
Since 7 October 2023, the Gaza war has become one of the deadliest and most destructive conflicts in recent decades. According to aggregated UN OCHA data and official figures, by November 2025 more than 70,000 Palestinians and over 2,000 Israelis had been killed. Independent researchers estimate that roughly 80% of Palestinian casualties were civilians.UN human-rights reports indicate that in Israeli strikes on residential buildings, about 70% of victims were women and children.
Satellite assessments by UNOSAT show that tens of thousands of structures in Gaza have been completely destroyed, and much of the urban infrastructure has been damaged. A 2024 report cites more than 60,000 completely destroyed buildings, 20,000 severely damaged, and tens of thousands more with moderate damage. A joint World Bank–UN assessment in early 2025 places the physical destruction in Gaza and the West Bank at tens of billions of dollars, with more than half of the damage affecting housing.
This scale of devastation has turned Gaza into an organized humanitarian disaster, reshaping Israel’s image from a state claiming self-defense into an actor deliberately targeting the infrastructure of an entire society.
Meanwhile, Israel expanded the war to other countries. The 1 April 2024 airstrike on Iran’s consulate building in Damascus—killing several IRGC commanders and Syrian civilians—constituted one of the clearest violations of diplomatic immunity in recent years.
Months later, Israel launched the large-scale “Northern Arrows” operation in Lebanon, which according to various sources killed more than 800 people, injured thousands, and displaced hundreds of thousands—described by rights organizations as the most severe attacks since Lebanon’s civil war.
This pattern—massive use of airpower against civilian areas, forced displacement, and cross-border strikes against embassies and sovereign territory—clearly demonstrates which actor is truly undermining regional legal and security norms.
Arrest Warrants for “War Criminals”: Unprecedented Global Isolation
In the past, Iran’s nuclear file was at the center of scrutiny at the IAEA and UN Security Council, with the West portraying Iran as the major threat through the language of non-proliferation. But after the Gaza war, it is now Israel that faces the gravest international-law accusations.
In January 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, ruled that allegations of genocide in Gaza are legally plausible and imposed provisional measures requiring Israel to prevent further killings and improve humanitarian conditions. In May 2024, the ICJ ordered Israel to halt its Rafah operation and ensure humanitarian access.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor in 2024–2025 requested arrest warrants for the Israeli prime minister and former defense minister for war crimes, including the deliberate targeting of civilians and using starvation as a method of warfare. ICC judges later formally issued the arrest warrants. No Iranian political leader has ever faced such charges—highlighting who the international legal system sees as the major violator today.
Politically, the same trend is visible:– The UN General Assembly in October 2023 and December 2024 overwhelmingly passed resolutions calling for an immediate Gaza ceasefire, with only a handful of states standing with Israel.– In March 2024, even with the U.S. abstaining, the UN Security Council passed a ceasefire resolution—leaving Israel more isolated than ever.
Thus, the same international system once used to pressure Iran now finds itself primarily focused on Israel’s conduct.
Global Fear of Israel’s Nuclear Recklessness
Since the Gaza war began, global concern has surged over the possibility of Israel using its nuclear capabilities—a fear rooted in several realities:
– Israel’s long-standing nuclear ambiguity– Its refusal to join arms-control treaties– A record of military decisions outside classical deterrence logic
In 2023, when several Israeli political and security figures openly discussed the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Gaza, world media were stunned; such scenarios had never previously entered official discourse.
In 2024, after the mass pager explosions in Lebanon—when thousands of basic communication devices detonated simultaneously—global mistrust of Israel intensified.
As regional tensions grew, scenarios emerged about an Israeli nuclear strike on Iran before the 12-day war, triggering a new wave of international alarm. Analysts warn that Israel’s current political system—fractured, facing legitimacy crises, and under enormous public pressure—may act out of fear, anger, or political revenge rather than rational strategic calculation.
Combined with nuclear capability, such a dynamic could produce the most dangerous security scenarios.
Arab Public Opinion Redefines Threats: Israel as the Primary Threat
Public opinion is a key indicator of security perception. Arab Opinion Index data show that even before the Gaza war, Israel—not Iran—was viewed as the greater and more immediate threat by Arab citizens. In the 2022 survey, when asked “Which country poses the greatest threat to regional security and stability?” the majority answered Israel. When asked which country threatens their own nation the most, 28% named Israel, but only 9% named Iran, despite the heavy promotion of Iranophobia in international media.
The countries where Israel is overwhelmingly viewed as the top threat include Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, Sudan, and Algeria—states with direct experience or proximity to Israeli actions.
After the Gaza war, a special survey revealed that 77% of respondents saw the U.S. and Israel as the greatest threats to regional security.
A 2020 study by an Israeli research center in Saudi Arabia and other Arab states similarly found that many Saudis saw Israel as a more serious threat than Iran.
These trends—sharpened after the Gaza and 12-day wars—show that the Western claim that Arab public opinion sees Iran as the main threat is not rooted in reality.
A Legitimacy Crisis Among Western Allies
In the West, Israel’s global image has deteriorated at unprecedented speed. A YouGov poll in the UK (Oct 2025) shows 57% of the public considers Israel’s Gaza military actions unjustifiable, with only 18% viewing them as justified.
Further YouGov surveys across Western Europe show Israel’s popularity at record lows: in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Denmark, and the UK, less than 20% view Israel positively, with net favorability dropping to –40 to –50.
In the U.S., Gallup and Pew surveys indicate similar trends:
– Gallup (early 2024): 52% of Americans see the Israel–Palestine conflict as a critical threat to U.S. national interests—the highest since 2004.– Pew (Oct 2025): 39% say Israel has gone too far in Gaza; 59% view Israel unfavorably (up from 51% in early 2024).– Chicago Council poll: Americans who think the U.S. supports Israel “too much” rose from 30% to 37%, and over 50% of Democrats think U.S. support is excessive.
Even among American Jews, a Washington Post survey shows 61% believe Israel committed war crimes in Gaza, and about 40% consider genocide possible.
A 2024 UK YouGov poll found 11% of respondents view Israel as the greatest threat to global peace—roughly equal to views about Iran—indicating that parts of Western public opinion now see Israel as a potential global destabilizer.
Iran: A Responsible Actor vs. an Out-of-Control Regime
If real threat is measured by:
– the scale of violence– instability produced– violations of international law– and public perception
the overall picture is clear.
In the past two years, Israel has:
– killed tens of thousands of civilians– destroyed a large portion of Gaza– carried out major attacks in Lebanon and Syria– violated diplomatic immunity– struck even Qatar, a U.S. military ally– openly threatened to use nuclear weapons– faced genocide and war-crime charges at the highest international courts– and become unprecedentedly isolated at the UN
Iran, despite debates around its regional policies, has:
– not launched wars to occupy foreign territory– not killed hundreds of thousands in neighboring countries– not been the target of ICJ or ICC genocide accusations– acted within a doctrine of pre-emptive defense and support for resistance movements against occupation and foreign military presence—not as the primary source of instability
Regional surveys consistently show that Arab citizens—despite historical skepticism toward Iran—view the U.S. and Israel as the main threats, with Israel as the foremost destabilizing actor.
Western public opinion is increasingly distrustful of Israel’s conduct, seeing it as a threat to global peace and even to the West’s own moral standing.
This shift means the decades-long Iranophobia project—built on exaggerating Iran’s threat while normalizing Israeli behavior—has failed in the real world. The Gaza war and its spillover have exposed the true weight of each actor.
Today, Israel is increasingly seen as the unpredictable, destabilizing force and the primary threat to peace and stability.
This situation presents an opportunity for smart Iranian diplomacy to:
– firmly defend Palestinian rights and its national security,– rely on data and legal arguments,– strengthen its image as a responsible and predictable actor,– and challenge the imposed narrative that Iran is inherently a threat
